2066 Crist Drive Los Altos, California. The address of the garage where Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak created Apple’s first computers. The part of this story that is hard to grasp and often left out is that both of these intellectuals are college drop-outs. Yet they created arguably the most successful tech company in the world. From a young age, many of us are ingrained with this idea that some day we will need to go to college to get a good job. It is the “standard”. Go for 4 years, then either go to grad school or find a job. What we are never told is that there are other ways to be successful. In fact, many people find other ways to be successful, but not until after they take on massive debt and get a degree they never use. In the Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel, he writes, “Only 27% of college grads have a job related to their major, according to the Federal Reserve. Twenty-nine percent of stay-at-home parents have a college degree.” That leaves 73% of college graduates in debt for almost no reason. College can be extremely useful for many people but it feels like it’s losing the prestige that it once had. If college continues to get more expensive and information becomes more accessible, where does that leave the role of college in the not so distant future?

The Origin of College

In the United States, the first college dates back to 1636. Harvard college was the first to step foot on the scene, modeling their programs after higher education in medieval Europe during the 12th and 13th centuries. Early universities were focused on providing a liberal arts education that would prepare students for a variety of careers and roles in society. At the time, the government was heavily funding these colleges, making it rather affordable for people to attend. Colleges began expanding into universities and in the 20th century, there was a shift in demand toward specific skills rather than a variety. Students would attend specialized programs, designed to focus on learning one field. At the end of the specialized program, you receive a degree, documenting your preparedness to work in the field you chose to study. However, many of these specialized degrees, such as a doctorate, require grad school, so around another 4 years, maybe more. As degrees became more common, jobs started requiring students have one to land a position at their company. With this requirement comes an increase in demand for college enrollment, therefore driving up the price of tuition. According to the Manhattan Institute, tuition has risen 20 percent in the last ten years alone. If this trend continues, where do we end up?

The Macroeconomic Effects on College

The rise of tuition cost in not solely to be blamed on increased enrollment. Over the last few decades, the overall cost of living has also been on a steady increase. In addition, healthcare costs impact colleges due to the fact they are required to provide benefits to their employees. And unlike the early days of college there has been less government funding. Leaving these institutions with no choice but to hike tuition and make up for the shortfall. All of this adds up to an huge unaffordable expense for potential students. The current state of the economy must be factored in as well. The uncertainty that comes with rising inflation and unemployment, leads to a decrease in birth rate, eventually causing a decrease in enrollment. This enrollment cliff will hit smaller universities and colleges the hardest. The elite colleges such as Yale or Harvard pick their applicants and have plenty of money to keep the classes full, most likely leaving them untouched. In Malcom Gladwell’s newsletter, he mentions that Princeton’s endowment return next year will be roughly $3.77 billion dollars. Subtract the $1.86 billion for operating expenses, and they are left with $1.91 billion. The current price of tuition, including room and board, is over $80,000 a year. Princeton would be able to pay for every student’s tuition and then some, but instead they choose to stay an autonomous money printer. The prestigious schools will stay afloat regardless of national enrollment rates and macroeconomic sentiment, however this is a minuscule number in relation to the entire population. It is inevitable that new ways of education begin to flourish, especially with growing innovation of artificial intelligence.

Information At Your Fingertips

To be a lawyer, doctor, or scientist probably means college and grad school. For everyone else, there is a good chance everything you need is a few clicks away. Receiving a degree in Sociology, Gender Studies, or History is probably not worth the return on your investment. You receive the same knowledge you can get reading countless books on these topics. Except if you take the reading route, you are not confined to the system, you save $100,000, and you can attain the wisdom faster than 4 years. It’s basically college without the professor telling you what chapter you are reading that week. Books date back to the 25th century BC, artificial intelligence does not. Both powerful tools, but the latter may takeover. Recently, OpenAI released their chatbot called ChatGPT. If you have not heard of it, look it up and go try it. The results are remarkable. It can basically spit back any piece of information that you need in a few seconds. No links. No clicks. No searching. If you told it to write you a 5 paragraph essay about the American Revolution it would do it well. That puts professors who were planning to assign that essay next week in a predicament. What will be the need for a classroom if you can sit in front of a search bar and get fed anything you ask it to feed you. There is always a misconception that a new tool like this will takeaway jobs, but in reality it creates new jobs. New jobs that will leverage this technology to do new things. Blockchain, augmented reality, and artificial intelligence are all on the cusp of making major breakthroughs into the mainstream and barely any of the college’s offer programs on these topics. This will lead to a huge lack of engineering and coding talent, another skill that many people self-teach. There is no telling how the future will play out, but the shrinking future of college seems to be a real thing. It is worth some speculation at the very least.

Personal Experience

I attended the University of San Diego for two years. Having come into college with no direction, I found myself checking graduate requirements off the list and dabbling in business classes. Being in San Diego was fantastic, I surfed, worked out, hung out with my friends, and ate good food almost everyday. The downside is that I had no clue what the fuck I was gonna do when I got out of school. Two years in I got sent home because of the pandemic. Biggest blessing in disguise of my life. Last year I began experimenting with different ideas to pursue once I go back to school. Turns out the idea that I went with involved no college at all. I found blockchain and crypto and realized there was a new wave of technology I had been completely oblivious to. During this time I learned the markets, read tons of books, took some online blockchain courses, enrolled in some coding bootcamps, and networked with many entrepreneurs in the crypto space. I am still figuring it out, but if there is one thing I can say with confidence, it’s that I am on a far better trajectory than I ever was at school.

Weekly Book/Podcast Recommendations

• Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel

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